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FiduVentures Capital · Division 01

Timing is the thesis.

After a decade in equity research, we recognized the old playbook was broken. So we built a different one - technical signals first, fundamentals second, AI throughout. A short-term trading system designed for absolute returns in any market environment.

10+
Years equity research
Day+Swing
US & HK equities
AI
Throughout the stack
Abs.
Return objective
AAPL +0.84% NVDA +2.13% TSLA -1.27% MSFT +0.42% AMZN +0.91% META -0.33% GOOGL +1.07% AMD +1.82% NFLX -0.56% SPY +0.38% AAPL +0.84% NVDA +2.13% TSLA -1.27% MSFT +0.42% AMZN +0.91% META -0.33% GOOGL +1.07% AMD +1.82% NFLX -0.56% SPY +0.38%
The problem

The market changed. The research didn't.

After ten-plus years in equity research, one conclusion became unavoidable: the traditional approach to picking stocks is breaking down. Not because the analysis is wrong, but because the world the analysis was built for no longer exists. The edge has moved, and most of the industry hasn't moved with it.

01 / The alpha problem

Pure research can't generate meaningful alpha anymore.

The information advantage that used to come from deep fundamental work has compressed. Everyone has the same data, the same 10-Ks, the same transcript access. The edge from "knowing the company better" is increasingly marginal - and the market prices that marginal edge faster every year.

02 / The homogeneity problem

Most research is interchangeable - and already priced.

Same frameworks, same DCF models, same consensus estimates. By the time a research note is published, the market has already absorbed the conclusion. The research isn't wrong - it's just late. And late research, no matter how thorough, has no commercial value.

03 / The replaceability problem

The analytical work is exactly what AI does best.

Reading filings, building models, comparing peer sets, tracking estimates - this is the bulk of what equity analysts do, and it's the bulk of what AI now does faster and more consistently. The human analyst's role is shrinking. The question isn't whether AI replaces research - it's what comes after.

Our approach

We flipped the model.

The traditional approach layers technical analysis on top of fundamental research - you find a company you like, then you try to time it. We do the opposite. We screen for stocks that are technically ready to move - showing accumulation, momentum shifts, or pattern breaks - and then we apply fundamental research to decide how much to commit. The chart tells us when. The fundamentals tell us how much.

The traditional way

Fundamentals first, technicals layered on top

  • Research the company deeply - business model, competitive position, financials
  • Build a valuation model and derive a price target
  • Decide the stock is "undervalued" and worth buying
  • Layer on technical analysis to try to improve entry timing
  • Buy and hold, waiting for the market to recognize the value
  • Hope the timing works out - it often doesn't
The Fidu way

Technicals first, fundamentals for position sizing

  • Screen for stocks showing technical accumulation or momentum shifts
  • Identify candidates that look like they're about to make a move
  • Apply fundamental research to validate the underlying business
  • Use conviction level to determine position size - not the other way around
  • Enter with defined short-term holding criteria and exit rules
  • Capital is deployed when timing is right, not when a model says "cheap"
Process

Four steps. Every position.

The system is rules-based and repeatable. No gut calls, no narrative drift. Each step has a defined input and a defined output - if a candidate doesn't pass a step, it doesn't advance. AI runs the screening and pattern recognition; human judgment runs the fundamental validation and risk management.

  1. Screen

    AI-driven technical screens scan both US and Hong Kong equity universes for stocks showing accumulation patterns, momentum shifts, volume anomalies, and multi-timeframe signal convergence. The system surfaces candidates that look like they're about to move - before they move.

  2. Validate

    Fundamental research confirms there's a real business behind the chart. We're not buying charts - we're buying companies whose charts are telling us something. If the fundamentals don't support the technical signal, the candidate is cut. No exceptions.

  3. Size

    Position sizing is driven by conviction level and risk parameters - not by a fixed model. The stronger the technical signal and the fundamental validation, the larger the position. Risk is defined before entry, not adjusted after.

  4. Manage

    Day trades exit intraday - US positions are closed before the session ends, no overnight risk. Swing trades in HK are held for days to weeks, monitored against their entry thesis with predefined exit rules. The system tracks every position in real time - if the technical signal fades or the pattern breaks, the position exits. Capital is recycled into the next opportunity.

Our philosophy

Being right is not enough.

The opportunity cost of capital is the most underpriced risk in investing. You can be right about a company - the business grows, the earnings compound, the thesis plays out exactly as you expected - and still lose money. Because capital deployed at the wrong time is capital that isn't working.

We design for timing because timing is where returns actually live. A stock that returns 30% over twelve months but sits flat for nine of them is not the same as a stock that returns 30% in three weeks. The first ties up capital. The second frees it. In a world where AI compresses the time between signal and price action, the edge belongs to whoever acts on the signal first - and recycles capital fastest.

Market focus

What we trade.

  • US equities - day trading, intraday positions closed same session
  • HK equities - swing trading, positions held days to weeks
  • Systematic, rules-based execution - no discretionary overrides
  • Absolute return objective - not measured against a benchmark
  • AI throughout the stack - screening, pattern recognition, signal validation
  • Risk defined before entry - position sizing, stop levels, exit criteria
FiduVentures Capital

Interested in how we think about timing?

We're selective about who we work with, but we read every message. If you're an investor, a technologist, or just curious about the approach, send a note.